Natural diamond prices are showing early signs of stabilising following a substantial fall from their post-pandemic highs. Paul Rowley, executive vice-president of diamond trading at De Beers, said on 27 August 2026 that prices had corrected by approximately 20% to 30%, with some diamonds above two carats now beginning to increase in price.
Separate trade data supports the suggestion that the market may be reaching a turning point. The Rapaport Trade Diamond Index for one-carat diamonds was unchanged in July after 13 consecutive months of decline, while several other size categories recorded modest increases. For jewellery buyers, however, wholesale price movements require careful interpretation.
Why did Natural diamond prices fall?
The diamond market experienced unusually strong demand after the pandemic, partly as postponed weddings resumed and consumers redirected money previously reserved for travel and other activities. That period of exceptional purchasing placed upward pressure on prices.
Conditions subsequently changed. Economic uncertainty affected discretionary spending, demand weakened sharply in China and excess stocks accumulated throughout parts of the diamond supply chain. The rapid growth of Lab Grown diamonds also changed the competitive landscape, particularly within bridal jewellery.
Natural diamond producers responded by reducing output and attempting to align supply more closely with demand. De Beers cut its rough-diamond production by 12% during 2025, recovering 21.7 million carats compared with 24.7 million the previous year.
The resulting market correction has been painful for producers and traders, but lower wholesale prices can eventually create better buying opportunities further along the supply chain.
What does stabilisation mean?
Price stabilisation does not necessarily mean that every diamond has become more expensive. It means that the sustained downward movement may be slowing or pausing in particular sections of the market.
Rapaport reported that its index for one-carat diamonds remained flat during July 2026, ending more than a year of consecutive monthly declines. Its half-carat index increased by 1.8%, while the 0.30-carat and three-carat categories rose by 1.6% and 0.2% respectively.
These indices monitor selected categories of GIA-graded round diamonds offered within the international trade. They provide a useful indication of direction but do not represent every diamond shape, quality or retail transaction.
A single month of stable or rising figures cannot confirm a lasting recovery. Nevertheless, when combined with reports of firmer demand for certain larger stones, it suggests that the market is becoming more selective rather than moving uniformly downwards.
Why are diamonds above two carats performing differently?
De Beers reports that prices for some Natural diamonds above two carats have begun to rise significantly. Rapaport has also identified consumer interest in two-carat round and elongated fancy-shaped diamonds within particular colour and clarity ranges.
Larger, attractive Natural diamonds are inherently less common than smaller stones. The quantity of suitable rough material diminishes as the required finished size and quality increase, especially when buyers also want a desirable shape, good colour and few visible inclusions.
Demand is equally important. Current engagement-ring trends favour visibly elongated shapes such as oval, marquise, pear, radiant and elongated cushion diamonds. These can create a strong presence across the finger and may look larger than some other shapes of comparable carat weight.
That does not mean every diamond above two carats is appreciating. Cut quality, colour, clarity, fluorescence, proportions and overall appearance can produce significant differences between stones of the same nominal weight.
Wholesale prices are not retail prices
The reported 20% to 30% correction relates broadly to the diamond market from its post-pandemic peak. It should not be interpreted as a promise that every finished diamond ring is now 20% to 30% cheaper.
A retail price includes much more than the wholesale cost of a loose centre diamond. Precious metal, smaller accompanying diamonds, design, casting, setting, polishing, hallmarking, certification, packaging and service all contribute to the finished piece.
Gold has also become considerably more expensive. Any saving achieved when sourcing a diamond can therefore be partly offset by a higher cost for its 18ct gold setting.
Retailers may additionally hold stock purchased at different times and prices. Two apparently similar rings can have different costs because of when their components were acquired, how efficiently the businesses operate and the margins applied throughout their respective supply chains.
Carat weight alone does not determine value
Market reports often divide diamonds into carat categories, but weight is only one element of value.
A beautifully cut 1.80-carat diamond may be more attractive than a poorly proportioned stone that just exceeds the psychologically important two-carat threshold. The heavier diamond might carry excess weight beneath the setting where it contributes little to its visible size.
Measurements therefore matter. The certificate records the length, width and depth of the diamond, allowing buyers to understand how its weight is distributed. Two diamonds with the same carat weight can appear noticeably different when viewed from above.
Colour and clarity grades also influence price, but the highest available grades are not essential for every purchase. A diamond should be assessed as a complete stone, including its brilliance, proportions and appearance without magnification.
What does this mean for engagement-ring buyers?
A more stable market may provide confidence that the recent rapid correction is beginning to moderate, but it is not a reason to purchase hurriedly.
Anyone choosing a Natural diamond should compare stones on their individual merits. Shape, visible dimensions, cut quality and how the diamond looks in ordinary lighting are more useful than attempting to predict the next movement in an international price index.
Buyers may find particularly interesting opportunities just below prominent carat boundaries. A well-proportioned 0.90-carat or 1.90-carat diamond can appear very close in size to the full-carat alternative while avoiding some of the price premium associated with the larger number.
Certification remains essential. An independent grading report should confirm that the stone is a Natural diamond and record its principal quality characteristics. It should then be matched carefully to a secure, appropriately constructed setting.
Natural and Lab Grown diamond prices behave differently
The stabilisation being reported concerns Natural diamonds. It should not be assumed that Lab Grown diamonds will follow the same pattern.
Natural diamond supply depends upon economically viable deposits, mining production and the rarity of suitable rough material. Lab Grown diamond supply is determined more directly by manufacturing capacity, technology, energy costs and competition between producers.
Both are genuine diamonds, but their markets and pricing structures have increasingly separated. Wholesale prices for Lab Grown diamonds have fallen substantially as production has expanded and manufacturing has become more efficient.
This makes Lab Grown diamonds an attractive option for buyers prioritising size, specification and immediate affordability. Natural diamonds offer a different proposition based upon geological origin, finite supply and rarity. Neither choice should be supported by unrealistic promises about future resale value.
Are Natural diamonds an investment?
A diamond engagement ring should primarily be purchased as jewellery rather than as a short-term financial investment.
Wholesale price indices describe selected trade categories; they do not guarantee what an individual owner could receive when reselling a stone. A private seller will not normally have the same market access, volume or trading relationships as an established diamond business.
Exceptional rare diamonds can perform differently at specialist auctions, but their results should not be used to predict the resale value of ordinary commercial jewellery.
The lasting value of an engagement ring is better understood through its combination of beauty, quality, durability and personal significance.
A more balanced diamond market
The latest evidence suggests that the Natural diamond market may be moving from broad price decline towards greater stability, with stronger performance in certain sizes and qualities.
For consumers, that does not make choosing a diamond a matter of market timing. It makes informed comparison more important. A favourable wholesale environment is valuable only when it results in a well-chosen diamond, a secure setting and a fair retail price.
The most sensible approach remains to judge every diamond individually, understand its documentation and compare the complete piece rather than concentrating upon carat weight alone. Market conditions will continue to change, but an attractive, properly made engagement ring should be chosen to give pleasure long after the latest price movement has been forgotten.